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However, just a year later, these same wealthy nations are compromising that commitment by boosting exports and launching new fossil fuel initiatives that could last for decades. At the same time, major oil corporations have weakened their climate pledges.
An evaluation from a think tank reveals that countries are moving towards an “oil and gas exploration boom” following the commitment. Using industry data, it identified the United States, Norway, Australia, and China as among the top ten issuers of drilling permits over the past year—signaling that large areas will soon be open for bidding. The United States is producing more oil than any country has ever achieved before—a trend likely to intensify with Donald Trump’s election, who referred to oil and gas as “liquid gold” during his victory speech.
These developments contribute to a feeling among scientists and policy experts that the world has squandered a crucial year, raising concerns about the effectiveness of U.N. discussions in tackling this essential aspect of global warming. “This is not a mid-century target. We are out of time. That is the critical point that countries did not take seriously when they returned home” from last year’s conference in Dubai, remarked Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.
According to a recent U.N. emissions report, the world has only about five years remaining at current emission levels before exceeding the carbon budget necessary to keep temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), a crucial goal of the Paris Agreement. Humanity could emit greenhouse gases at current rates for roughly another 22 years before surpassing the budget for maintaining temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).
As nations prepare for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, global electricity demand is increasing faster than renewable energy sources can be deployed, creating more opportunities for fossil fuels. Earlier this year, Saudi Aramco's CEO suggested that the world should “abandon the fantasy” of eliminating oil and gas. If Trump withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement and the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change entirely, it would set a precedent that nations significantly contributing to global temperature rises cannot be counted on to assist in addressing the crisis.
The agreement reached in Dubai was significant as it marked the first occasion where nations explicitly mentioned fossil fuels, which account for approximately 90 percent of emissions contributing to global warming. The deal underscored the necessity for “accelerating action in this critical decade,” recognizing scientific evidence that immediate emission reductions are vital to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial levels.
Yet, under existing policies, the world is on track to exceed this limit—while severe and costly disasters intensified by emissions occur across continents. Industry representatives argue that they are acting responsibly by committing to significantly reduce methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas. They also highlight their role in providing geopolitical stability amid high energy demand.
In Baku, discussions on fossil fuels will take a secondary position on the agenda. This is partly due to the cyclical nature of the talks, where only a limited number of issues—such as funding for vulnerable nations—can be prioritized within the consensus-based framework.
The host nation, Azerbaijan, which relies heavily on oil and gas revenue, did not mention the transition away from fossil fuels in its opening letter to delegations. This omission reflects a broader reality: many barriers to the energy transition cannot be effectively addressed through international negotiations. Politicians in numerous countries often hesitate to confront the powerful fossil fuel lobby. Oil and gas continue to be highly lucrative industries, and even as demand may wane, companies make competing claims to remain as the last suppliers. While regulations and incentives can promote renewable energy, most major fossil fuel companies currently allocate only a small fraction of their revenues toward cleaner fuels and technologies.
“We’re dealing with companies that want to continue with oil and gas for as long as possible,” stated Mark van Baal, a Dutch activist investor advocating for greener policies within fossil fuel firms. “This is their comfort zone. This is how they reached the top of the industry.”
Van Baal pointed to Shell, the world’s fourth-largest oil and gas company, as an example. In 2021, Shell announced ambitious emissions-reduction targets. However, under new leadership this year, the company diluted its emissions-reduction goal for 2030 and scrapped its 2035 target, which had originally called for a 45 percent reduction in carbon intensity.
Shell claims it intends to increase its liquefied natural gas production—considered the least emissions-intensive fossil fuel—while keeping oil production stable for the remainder of the decade. A Shell spokesperson stated that the company is making “good progress on our climate targets” and supports the Paris Agreement's objectives. Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, remarked that “while the world still relies on oil, we will supply it—but with lower emissions.”
Van Baal argued that the strategies employed by companies like Shell represent a wager “on the failure of Paris.”
Despite these challenges, clean energy did achieve some progress last year. In September, Britain—historically the birthplace of coal-fired power—closed its last coal plant. The country’s new Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, ruled out issuing new licenses for oil and gas drilling off the Scottish coast. Additionally, according to the energy think tank Ember, robust adoption of solar and wind power helped push renewables' share in the global electricity mix above 30 percent. Investment in clean energy worldwide now exceeds that for fossil fuels by a factor of two.
However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the growth of renewables alone will not be sufficient to rapidly reduce reliance on oil, gas, and coal. In a 2023 report outlining pathways to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the IEA indicated that fossil fuels would need to decrease from supplying four-fifths of global energy to less than one-fifth. This decline would need to be substantial enough that after 2023, no new large-scale oil and gas projects would be necessary.
Yet, such projects continue to emerge at an alarming rate. The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), which monitors oil and gas data, reports that countries have issued permits this year that could result in over 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions if fully exploited—equivalent to approximately 3.5 percent of global annual emissions. Although this figure represents a downward trend over the past decade, the IISD warns of a looming “massive surge” in permits, with countries planning to issue licenses over the next six months that could account for up to 15 billion tons of emissions—about one-quarter of annual global emissions output.
“These countries are net exporters that assert they are leaders in climate action while simultaneously increasing their emissions,” he stated. “I believe this is completely unjustifiable at this stage.” António Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, remarked earlier this year that the biggest polluters need to take the lead in phasing out fossil fuels and halt their expansion “without delay.” “When governments approve new oil and gas licenses, they are jeopardizing our future,” he added.